The Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DEPDev) has warned that inflation in the Philippines could surge to double-digit levels if global crude oil prices climb to $200 per barrel amid the ongoing Middle East crisis.
Under its “most severe scenario,” the agency projects inflation could accelerate to between 11.4% and 14.3% as early as April, with a full-year average ranging from 7.3% to 8.6% in 2026.
Fuel prices are also expected to spike sharply. Diesel could rise from ₱59.24 per liter to ₱154.06 in April and further to ₱162.60 in May — an increase of up to 176%. Gasoline prices, meanwhile, may jump to ₱135.48 per liter in April and ₱142.38 in May, or nearly 147% higher.
Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the projections reflect the most extreme among five scenarios being monitored by the agency to assess the economic fallout of the tensions involving the United States, Iran, and Israel.
Officials emphasized that the scenario remains a worst-case outlook, but underscores the potential severity of the crisis should global oil markets further destabilize.