Malacañang has expressed confidence that the Philippines could achieve upper middle-income status before the end of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration, despite global economic challenges and downgraded growth forecasts from international institutions.
Communications Undersecretary and Palace Press Officer Claire Castro relayed the statement of Economy, Planning, and Development Secretary Arsenio Balisacan during a Palace briefing.
“By July 2026 the World Bank will indicate whether we have met the income threshold for upper middle income status based on 2025 performance. Formal classification may require additional years of sustained results. We remain confident this will be achieved within the term of the Marcos administration. Despite geopolitical tensions and heightened uncertainty, we will stay the course in stabilizing the economy and strengthening social protection to sustain poverty reduction,” Balisacan said.
The World Bank earlier projected that the Philippines could reach upper middle-income status by 2028, noting that the classification requires at least three consecutive years of maintaining gross national income (GNI) per capita above the threshold.
Upper middle-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita ranging from $4,496 to $13,935. In 2024, the Philippines recorded $4,470—slightly below the benchmark, according to the Presidential Communications Office.
Malacañang also emphasized ongoing efforts to sustain economic growth amid external pressures, including tensions in the Middle East.
“So, sa ngayon po kahit ano po ang nararanasan natin ngayon dahil dulot ng gulo dito sa Middle East pinagsusumikapan po ng gobyerno na maibsan or maiwasan, mabawasan ang nararanasan natin na hirap dulot ng krisis sa Middle East. So, patuloy pa rin po ang pagpapalago ng ekonomiya,” Castro said.
However, global institutions have revised their outlooks downward. The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 growth forecast to 4.1% from 5.6%, while the Asian Development Bank also lowered projections. S&P Global Ratings downgraded its outlook on the Philippines to “stable” from “positive.”
Despite these challenges, the Philippines remains among the faster-growing economies in the region.