Vice President Sara Duterte continues to hold the top spot in a potential 2028 presidential matchup, though a recent survey suggests the race is tightening as Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo gains significant ground.
According to the OCTA Research Group’s Tugon ng Masa (TNM) first-quarter survey conducted from March 19 to 25, 2026, Duterte secured 46% of the preference vote. Former Vice President Robredo followed with 35%, while 19% of the respondents remained undecided.
Shifting Electoral Dynamics
While the Vice President remains the frontrunner, the 11-point difference marks a notable shift from previous data. OCTA observed that the current margin is narrower than in past commissioned surveys, where Duterte led by as much as 20 to 30 percentage points.
“The Q1 2026 results therefore point to a more competitive and less settled electoral landscape entering 2026,” the research firm stated.
Regional Strongholds and Voter Demographics
The survey highlights a distinct geographical divide in voter preference:
- Vice President Duterte: Maintains a dominant “electorally efficient coalition,” sweeping Mindanao at 88% and Visayas at 53%. She also continues to show high resonance among lower-income demographics.
- Mayor Robredo: Leads in “politically strategic and vote-dense areas,” securing 52% in the National Capital Region (NCR) and 47% in Balance Luzon. This represents a significant turnaround for Robredo, who previously lost these regions during the 2016 and 2022 elections.
Intentions for 2028
Despite the survey showing a competitive head-to-head, the two figures have expressed diverging paths. Vice President Duterte confirmed her presidential bid last February. Conversely, Robredo recently clarified that she intends to seek another term in her local post in Naga City rather than pursuing the presidency.
OCTA concluded that while Duterte benefits from a “clear national reach,” the concentration of support for Robredo in key urban hubs ensures she “remains competitive” in the national conversation.