Twelve areas across Luzon have been placed under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 on Thursday morning, July 23, as Tropical Depression Kiyapo makes its way toward the region, according to state weather bureau PAGASA.
In Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 2 released at 5 a.m., PAGASA reported that the center of the tropical depression was located 950 kilometers east of Central Luzon.
Kiyapo is packing maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, with gusts reaching up to 55 km/h, while tracking west-northwestward at 20 km/h.
Affected Areas and Wind Signals
Signal No. 1 has been hoisted over the following locations, where strong winds may cause minimal to minor impacts:
- Batanes
- Cagayan (including the Babuyan Islands)
- Isabela
- Apayao
- Abra
- Kalinga
- The eastern and central portions of Mountain Province
- The eastern and central portions of Ifugao
- Ilocos Norte
- The northern portion of Ilocos Sur
- The northern portion of Aurora
While PAGASA anticipates Signal No. 2 to be the highest signal raised during Kiyapo’s passage, weather forecasters noted that Signal No. 3 remains possible if the cyclone intensifies into a severe tropical storm while crossing the Batanes-Babuyan area.
Track and Intensity Forecast
Meteorologists project that Kiyapo will steadily gain strength over the Philippine Sea, reaching tropical storm status by Friday, July 24. The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying as it moves across extreme Northern Luzon and could upgrade to a severe tropical storm after passing the Babuyan Islands.
The storm’s center is predicted to pass very close to northeastern mainland Cagayan between Friday morning and afternoon, followed by a potential landfall or close approach to the Babuyan Islands from Friday afternoon to evening.
Kiyapo is forecast to maintain its west-northwestward path through Saturday, July 25, heading toward the Luzon Strait before shifting northwestward. It is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday morning or noon, eventually weakening as it moves inland over southern mainland China.
Monsoon Effects and Localized Weather
PAGASA weather specialist Chenel Dominguez noted during Thursday morning’s briefing that the southwest monsoon (habagat) and the trough of Kiyapo remain the primary weather drivers.
“As of Thursday, the habagat is affecting the western section of Luzon and the Visayas, and the entire Mindanao. We expect some areas in the Visayas and Mindanao, including Palawan, to experience rains due to the habagat,” Dominguez said.
Although Kiyapo remains offshore, its extension will bring scattered rainshowers to the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and Romblon.
“Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will experience partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with isolated rain showers or localized thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening,” Dominguez said.
Sea Conditions and Gale Warnings
The enhanced southwest monsoon will bring strong-to-gale-force gusts across various regions:
- Thursday: Most of Mindanao, Siquijor, Bohol, and Southern Leyte.
- Friday: Widespread strong gusts affecting most of the country.
- Saturday: Most of Luzon and Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occidental, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, and Davao Oriental.
PAGASA indicated that a gale warning may be issued for the seaboards of extreme Northern Luzon by late Thursday or early Friday.
Waves reaching up to three meters along the eastern seaboard of Davao Oriental have prompted warnings for small sea craft and motorbancas to stay ashore.
Moderate to rough seas are also expected along the eastern coastlines of Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Eastern Samar, and Dinagat Islands, as well as the western seaboards of Maguindanao, Sultan Kudarat, and Sarangani, and the seaboards of Davao Occidental.
Operators of small vessels are urged to exercise caution and avoid navigating hazardous waters.