Vice President Sara Duterte remains the top preference over former Vice President and current Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo in a hypothetical one-on-one contest for the 2028 presidential race, though her lead has tightened since early 2026, according to the latest Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey from OCTA Research.
Conducted from July 4 to 11 via face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult respondents nationwide, the second-quarter survey shows 43% of respondents favoring Duterte compared to 34% for Robredo. The remaining 22% were undecided, selected neither candidate, or declined to answer. The survey has a margin of error of ±3% at a 95% confidence level.
The current 9-point gap reflects a slight narrowing from the 11-point lead Duterte held in the first quarter of 2026, when she registered 46% support against Robredo’s 35%.
”The tightening is worth reading carefully. At the national level, the movement on both sides is modest: Robredo’s support was essentially flat, moving from 35% to 34%, while Duterte’s declined by three points, from 46% to 43%, and the undecided/none/don’t know bloc grew from 19% to 22%,” OCTA Research said.
”Comparing two independent survey waves carries a combined margin of error of roughly ±4.2 points nationally, so these national shifts are directionally consistent with some softening in Duterte’s support, but on their own they are suggestive rather than statistically confirmed,” it added.
”The survey was conducted during a period marked by significant political, economic, and environmental developments. Although the survey does not establish causal relationships between these developments and respondents’ voting preferences, situating the findings within the broader political and socioeconomic environment provides important context for interpreting the results,” the poll firm said.
Voting preferences reveal sharp geographic and demographic divides:
- Geographic Breakdown: Duterte and Robredo are in a statistical tie in Metro Manila at 34% each (with 32% undecided). Robredo leads in Balance Luzon (51% to 27%), whereas Duterte holds a firm lead in the Visayas (51% to 26%) and dominates Mindanao (76% to 6%).
- Socioeconomic Classes: Duterte leads across Class D (43% to 36%), Class E (51% to 31%), and Class ABC (36% to 27%, with 36% undecided).
- Age Demographics: Duterte leads among younger and middle-aged voters, peaking in the 25–34 bracket (61% to 14%). Conversely, Robredo commands support among older voters, leading those aged 55–64 (47% to 35%), 65–74 (47% to 26%), and 75 and above (61% to 32%).