The PAGASA Official Portal reported on Monday, August 17, that the ongoing heavy rainfall across various regions of the country aligns with typical precipitation behavior expected during an El Niño phenomenon.
The weather bureau noted it had previously issued warnings in April regarding El Niño’s potential to amplify the southwest monsoon, locally known as “habagat,” resulting in above-normal rainfall.
During an El Niño period, higher-than-average precipitation routinely develops over the western section of the country between July and September, a trend currently unfolding as the monsoon affects significant portions of Luzon and the Visayas.
“The habagat will continue to bring rains over the western portions of the country in August. Flash floods and landslides may occur during extreme rainfall events,” PAGASA warned.
Weather specialist Charmagne Varilla stated on Monday that the monsoon continues to generate heavy downpours throughout Central Luzon and western sectors of Northern Luzon, Southern Luzon, and the Visayas, alongside moderate to heavy rains over remaining areas of Luzon.
The agency cautioned that rainfall throughout the week could exceed levels recorded the previous week, projecting heavy to intense rainfall ranging from 100 to 200 millimeters between Monday and Tuesday noon, August 18, over Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, and Bataan.
Concurrently, Metro Manila, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, and Occidental Mindoro are expected to receive moderate to heavy rainfall measuring between 50 and 100 millimeters.
From Tuesday noon until Wednesday noon, August 19, heavy to intense downpours of 100 to 200 millimeters are expected to target Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro. Meanwhile, Metro Manila, Ilocos Sur, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite, Batangas, Rizal, Laguna, and Antique are forecast to register 50 to 100 millimeters of rainfall.
Looking ahead from Wednesday noon to Thursday noon, August 20, rain totals of 100 to 200 millimeters may persist over Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro. Moderate to heavy rainfall will likely continue affecting Metro Manila, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Benguet, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas.
The state weather bureau warned that regions slated for heavy to intense rain face significant risks of “numerous flooding events,” particularly across urbanized, low-lying, and riverside communities.
“Landslides are also likely in moderate to highly susceptible areas,” PAGASA said.
For locations projected to receive moderate to heavy downpours, the agency advised that localized flooding remains possible in urbanized, low-lying, and river-adjacent regions.
“Landslides are also likely in highly susceptible areas,” it added.