The Department of Agriculture (DA) assured the public on Tuesday, September 8, that the recent surge in fuel costs is unlikely to trigger a sharp spike in retail rice prices.
Speaking to the Philippine News Agency, Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel De Mesa dismissed fears that fuel adjustments would drive up rice inflation, describing such concerns as baseless.
“We’re not expecting or seeing huge increases sa presyo ng bigas,” he stated.
According to the latest DA-Bantay Presyo monitoring as of Monday, imported premium rice in Metro Manila retails at ₱50 per kilo, while imported well-milled and regular-milled varieties stand at ₱48 and ₱45 per kilo, respectively.
Meanwhile, local rice prices continue to trade within broader ranges: premium at ₱48 to ₱60 per kilo, well-milled at ₱40 to ₱56 per kilo, and regular-milled at ₱38 to ₱50 per kilo.
De Mesa emphasized that fuel cost adjustments do not automatically lead to immediate price increases at the retail level.
“Hindi siya automatic na nagtataas, at saka kung mayroon mang pagtaas sa presyo ng produktong petrolyo, ang nakakaapekto diyan ‘yung maliliit na movement,” De Mesa explained.
He noted that fuel fluctuations primarily affect upstream production inputs and palay transport rather than direct market retail pricing.
“Kasi ang palay naman, mino-move iyan ng maramihan. So ‘yung additional cost per unit kilo, napakaliit. Hindi siya malaki,” he pointed out.
Even if traders match the National Food Authority’s buying benchmark of ₱21 per kilo for fresh wet-season palay starting this September, retail prices are projected to remain stable, with well-milled rice expected to hold between ₱50 and ₱55 per kilo.
This price stability is further anchored by strong domestic production and consistent import arrivals.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority revealed a historic second-quarter harvest of 4.63 million metric tons between April and June—the highest for that period in nearly 40 years—bringing total first-half palay output to 9 million metric tons.
Complementing local yields, Bureau of Plant Industry records indicate that rice imports reached 3.609 million metric tons from January through August 20.