The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has projected that one to two tropical cyclones will either enter or develop within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) throughout November.
According to historical data from the state weather bureau, tropical cyclones arriving during this month commonly make landfall over the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, or the Caraga Region.
Current forecast tracks suggest these weather systems may also cross the Visayas toward Palawan or cut straight across Central Luzon. However, PAGASA noted that there remains a possibility for some cyclones to recurve or veer away safely without hitting land.
Looking further ahead, the bureau previously reported that up to four tropical cyclones could enter or form inside the PAR before the conclusion of 2026.
Meanwhile, two or more tropical cyclones are anticipated to track into the region between January and April 2027.
On rainfall conditions, PAGASA’s climate outlook indicates that most regions across the Philippines will experience way below-to-below-normal rainfall levels this November. The only exceptions are Davao City, Davao del Norte, and Agusan del Norte, which are projected to receive near-normal rainfall.
Drier conditions are expected to persist, with the bureau forecasting way below-to-below-normal rainfall nationwide from December 2026 through January 2027.