Vice President Sara Duterte maintains her lead over former Vice President and Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup, but the margin between them has shrunk to its narrowest point yet, according to the latest OCTA Research survey.
The third-quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey, conducted from September 28 to October 4 among 1,200 adult respondents nationwide, shows Duterte leading with 40% voter preference against Robredo’s 33%. The seven-point spread marks a continuous decline in Duterte’s lead across three consecutive survey quarters.
Declining Lead Across Quarters
Data from OCTA highlights a steady downward trend for the incumbent Vice President over the year:
- Q1 2026: Duterte 46%, Robredo 35% (11-point gap)
- Q2 2026: Duterte 43%, Robredo 34% (9-point gap)
- Q3 2026: Duterte 40%, Robredo 33% (7-point gap)
While Duterte’s support has fallen by six percentage points since the first quarter, Robredo’s numbers have remained relatively steady. Meanwhile, 26% of respondents indicated they were undecided or chose neither candidate, and 1% refused to answer. The survey has a margin of error of ±3% at a 95% confidence level.
Demographic Breakdown
Despite trailing nationally, Robredo secured advantages in specific demographics:
- National Capital Region: Led with 39% compared to Duterte’s 32%.
- Class ABC: Maintained an edge with 40% against Duterte’s 32%.
- Class E: Jumped 11 percentage points from the previous quarter to reach 42%, nearly tying Duterte’s 41%.
Conversely, Duterte retained her dominant position in Mindanao and the Visayas, as well as among rural residents, male voters, individuals under 45 years old, and Class D respondents.
OCTA emphasized that the poll reflects current public sentiment rather than a definitive prediction of the May 2028 elections.