The Department of Agriculture (DA) has warned that chicken prices could rise to as much as ₱324 per kilo, while rice may reach ₱67 per kilo if the global oil crisis persists.
During a Senate hearing on Tuesday, Agriculture Undersecretary U-Nichols Manalo said authorities are closely monitoring the global situation and the state of local food supply.
“We are closely monitoring the prices of our basic commodities, including fertilizers, and the supply of food and agricultural products relative to projected impacts,” Manalo said.
He presented a scenario in which crude oil prices surge to $200 per barrel for 180 days due to damage to oil infrastructure in the Middle East, driving up costs across the agriculture sector.
Under this scenario, chicken prices could increase from ₱200 to ₱324 per kilo, with pork—particularly kasim and liempo—also expected to rise. Well-milled rice prices could jump by 49%, from ₱45 to ₱67 per kilo.
Fertilizer prices are also projected to increase, reaching ₱288 per 50-kilo bag for granular urea and ₱237 for drilled urea. This could raise farmgate production costs by ₱1.00 to ₱1.50 per kilo. Rice and corn production may decline, while vegetable and onion supply could be affected due to higher storage and fuel costs.
Livelihoods of around two to three percent of small-scale farmers are also at risk, while fishermen may see fuel expenses for their boats rise to ₱1,000 per day.
Manalo underscored the urgency of government action, noting that the current rice inventory of the National Food Authority is only enough for nine days.