Senator Win Gatchalian has filed a resolution seeking to assess whether current economic conditions remain aligned with the projections used in Republic Act No. 12314, or the 2026 General Appropriations Act (GAA), citing risks from rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Senate Resolution No. 348 directs the appropriate committee to conduct an inquiry in aid of legislation, focusing on the impact of escalating United States–Israel and Iran tensions on key economic indicators.
“There is a pressing need to assess whether current market conditions remain aligned with the national budget and determine if fiscal policy adjustments are needed to ensure it remains responsive to the needs of our countrymen,” Gatchalian said.
The resolution warned that heightened tensions in the region could expose the Philippines to external shocks and volatile energy prices, potentially affecting inflation, GDP growth, and fiscal stability.
Citing estimates from the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DepDev), Gatchalian noted that inflation could rise to 4.0–4.2% from the pre-conflict forecast of 3.6% if oil prices reach $100 per barrel. Inflation may further climb to 4.5–4.8% if oil hits $140 per barrel and remains above $80 through September.
The resolution also cautioned that overseas Filipino worker (OFW) remittances could drop by as much as 65.3% from 2025 levels, equivalent to ₱226.58 billion, under a deployment ban and partial repatriation from conflict-affected areas.
DepDev further projected that the country’s GDP could decline by 0.20–0.30% if oil price shocks persist.
Gatchalian stressed that any deviation in assumptions—particularly inflation, GDP growth, and global oil prices—could impact fiscal targets and the implementation of programs under the 2026 budget.
The resolution aims to guide potential policy adjustments to ensure the national budget remains responsive while maintaining fiscal discipline amid global uncertainties.