MANILA, Philippines — A hypothetical presidential pairing of Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Robin Padilla maintains a lead over a tandem between former Vice President Leni Robredo and Senator Bam Aquino, though the margin between them has tightened significantly.
Results from the non-commissioned second-quarter Tugon ng Masa survey by OCTA Research show the Duterte-Padilla team securing 48% of support nationally, compared to 36% for the Robredo-Aquino tandem. Meanwhile, 16% of respondents remain undecided.
The 12-point margin reflects the closest gap recorded between the two potential pairings to date.
”In previous commissioned surveys conducted in 2025, the gap between the tandem of VP Sara Duterte–Sen. Robin Padilla and the tandem of VP Leni Robredo Sen. Bam Aquino had ranged from approximately 20 to 25 points, indicating a narrowing trend heading into 2028,” OCTA Research stated.
The polling was conducted nationwide from July 4 to 11, 2026, utilizing face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult probability respondents. The study carries a national margin of error of ±3% at a 95% confidence level.
”Subnational estimates have a margin of error of ±6% at a 95% confidence level for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao,” the independent research group noted.
The survey comes amid shifting political dynamics. Duterte, who is currently undergoing an impeachment trial in the Senate, formally declared her intention to seek the presidency in 2028 last February. In contrast, Robredo has reiterated that she does not intend to run for president again.
Both Padilla and Aquino have similarly stated that they have no plans to seek the vice presidency.