BANGKOK, Thailand — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its economic growth projection for the global economy this year, though it cautions that escalating debt levels and risks linked to the artificial intelligence boom present growing economic vulnerabilities.
According to its latest Economic Outlook released during the annual fall meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok, the global economy is now expected to expand by 3.1% this year. This marks a modest bump from its July forecast of 3.0%, though it remains lower than the 3.5% growth recorded in 2025. Projections indicate global growth will rebound to 3.4% by next year.
United States economic growth is anticipated to hold steady at 2.3% across both 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, advanced economies as a collective group are projected to grow by 2.1% this year—up slightly from 2.0% in 2025—before slowing down to 1.9% next year.
These updated forecasts rely on several baseline assumptions, including a roughly 41% surge in oil prices this year averaging $96 per barrel, global inflation easing from 4.7% this year to 4.1% next year, the resumption of Strait of Hormuz oil and gas shipments by March, and a moderation in the current AI demand craze.
Uneven Impact of Artificial Intelligence
IMF economists noted that while the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is helping buffer economies against high energy prices, it introduces distinct financial risks and uneven benefits. More than three-quarters of net demand for computer chips and AI equipment is concentrated in the United States and China.
”The outlook is highly uneven,” Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s director of research, told reporters in Bangkok.
Economic expansion has also grown increasingly concentrated, with just 32 nations accounting for 95% of global growth, down from 54 countries in April. Tenreyro added that global growth is essentially being reshaped based on how heavily countries are exposed to war-induced supply shocks and AI-driven demand.
Beyond market corrections in AI stocks, officials highlighted climbing bond yields and potential cyberthreats as major systemic hazards. Employment shifts driven by AI remain a primary concern, with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva characterizing the transition during a Monday event as a long-term labor disruption.
”A slow moving tsunami, but a tsunami nonetheless,” Georgieva said, estimating that AI will eventually impact roughly 40% of global jobs through elimination, downgrades, or augmentation.
Regional Outlook and Debt Concerns
Mounting public debt remains a critical issue, with the IMF urging governments globally to strengthen their national finances amid high borrowing costs.
While nations shielded from energy shocks and benefiting from AI adoption are keeping steady, emerging markets and developing economies face a slowdown, with growth expected to drop to 3.7% this year from 4.5% in 2025 before recovering to 4.4% next year. The Middle East and Central Asia face steeper challenges, with regional economies projected to contract this year prior to a recovery in 2027.
Among other major economies, the euro area is projected to achieve 1.1% growth this year, China is expected to expand by 4.5% in line with government targets, and India remains on track as the world’s fastest-growing major economy with an anticipated 7% expansion.