The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) on Thursday warned that inflation could surge to between 5.6% and 6.4% for the month of April, as soaring global commodity prices and domestic supply pressures continue to strain the economy.
In a statement, the central bank identified several key drivers for the upward trend, including the significantly higher costs of domestic petroleum and essential food items such as rice, fish, and meat. Increased electricity rates and the continued depreciation of the Philippine peso against the U.S. dollar have further intensified these inflationary risks.
The projected spike follows a sharp jump in March, where inflation hit 4.1%, up from 2.4% in February and 2% in January. The rapid acceleration has pushed inflation well beyond the government’s initial target range of 2% to 4% for 2026.
While the BSP noted that lower prices for certain vegetables and fruits might offer slight relief, the overall balance of risks remains heavily tilted to the upside.
“Inflation risks have intensified due to upward price pressures from significantly higher domestic petroleum prices, rising costs of key food items such as rice, fish, and meat, increased electricity charges, and peso depreciation,” the BSP said.
Economic analysts point to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as a primary catalyst for the surge, affecting not only crude oil but also the cost of fertilizers, which directly impacts food production costs.
In light of these developments, the BSP has revised its full-year inflation forecast for 2026 to an average of 5.1%. The central bank maintained its key policy rate at 4.25% during a recent off-cycle meeting, with Governor Eli Remolona Jr. indicating that while further hikes would be “painful,” the bank remains vigilant and data-driven in its approach to price stability.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is scheduled to release the official April inflation data on May 5.