QUEZON CITY, Philippines — The southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat, could draw to a close within the next fortnight—ahead of its traditional timeline—due to the influence of El Niño, according to the state weather bureau.
Officials from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) noted that climate models indicate a shift in weather patterns affecting the monsoon’s duration.
Speaking at a public climate forum, PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis explained that meteorologists and climatologists have observed a clear link between El Niño and the expedited timeline.
“So ngayon nakikita na rin po both the weather division and yung ating mga climatologist natin that it has an effect, may effect yung El Niño in terms of medyo maaga mag-terminate yung ating habagat,” Solis said.
The habagat typically spans from May through late September or the middle of October, delivering substantial rainfall across the western side of the archipelago. However, forecasters expect the transition to take place much sooner this season.
“So in few weeks time, in the next two weeks, so possible na mag-terminate na po yung ating habagat,” Solis noted.
Experts also pointed out that the recent period of intense southwest monsoon activity played a role in accelerating the system’s eventual decline.
“So ang effect niya [El Niño] is dahil mayroon tayong strong southwest monsoon activity, mapapaaga yung weakening o yung pagtatapos ng ating habagat sa ngayon,” she added.
With the early departure of the southwest monsoon, PAGASA anticipates a swift transition to the northeast monsoon, or amihan.
The cool dry winds of the amihan, which usually take hold between late October and early November, are likewise projected to arrive earlier than customary.
“Sa amihan, so possible din po, mapapaaga si amihan,” Solis stated.