A new survey by OCTA Research reveals a shift in the early political landscape for 2028, showing the hypothetical tandem of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo leading Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Imee Marcos.
The First Quarter Tugon ng Masa survey found that the Robredo-Tulfo pairing garnered 44% support nationwide, edging out the Duterte-Marcos tandem’s 40%.
Though the four-point gap is narrow, analysts noted the historical significance of the shift.
”While the Duterte-Marcos tandem remains a major contender, the emergence of the Robredo-Tulfo tandem marks the first time in TNM Surveys that a tandem has surpassed the support for Duterte-Marcos tandem.”
The data highlights a deep geographic divide. Robredo and Tulfo dominated the National Capital Region with 61% support, but faced a massive deficit in Mindanao, where they secured only 5%. Conversely, the Duterte-Marcos tandem maintained a stronghold in Mindanao with 86% support.
Despite the competitive figures, both leaders in the leading tandem have signaled they are not looking at the Malacañang race.
Robredo has expressed her intent to seek a second term as Naga City Mayor, while Tulfo has stated his preference for a second term in the Senate.
OCTA Research noted that the landscape remains fluid, particularly with 16% of the 1,200 respondents still undecided.
”The Q1 2026 results suggest a competitive tandem preference landscape, with only four percentage points separating the Robredo-Tulfo and Duterte-Marcos tandems at the national level.”