The Philippine national government voiced strong concern on Monday, August 17, over China’s growing military footprint across the South China Sea, warning that securing key features could allow Beijing to exert full control over a vital global trade route.
During the National Maritime Council’s (NMC) first-semester media briefing in Manila, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea Rear Adm. Jay Tarriela identified Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) as the final piece needed to complete Beijing’s strategic setup.
“The strategic triangle or iron triangle of the People’s Republic of China is very concerning. I highlighted that Bajo de Masinloc is the last remaining part of that triangle,” Tarriela said.
According to Tarriela, Beijing has already taken control of the Paracel Islands and transformed multiple reefs in the Spratly Islands into heavily fortified military outposts.
“Try to imagine if you’re going to connect the Paracel to Bajo de Masinloc, Bajo de Masinloc to the Spratlys, it will allow China to dominate the entire maritime space of the South China Sea,” he said.
The warning came as NMC spokesperson Undersecretary Alexander Lopez detailed extensive government maritime surveillance over the first six months of the year, reporting 4,893 surface operations covering 536,990 nautical miles alongside 711 aerial patrols logging 1,980 flying hours.
Joint operations by the PCG and the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) also accounted for 4,433 enforcement missions tackling violations of the amended Fisheries Code (Republic Act No. 10654), illegal fishing, and local municipal laws.
Despite these ongoing maritime operations, government officials view the vulnerability of Scarborough Shoal as a pressing security issue.
“This is disturbing because for China, they claim indisputable sovereignty in the entire water of the South China Sea,” Tarriela said.
In a social media statement posted on August 14, Tarriela similarly described the shoal as “the last unfinished vertex” of Beijing’s regional strategy, noting that China seized the Paracels in 1974 and militarized seven Spratly reefs, leaving only Scarborough Shoal undeveloped.
“If China militarizes it, the triangle closes and the danger stops being a Philippine problem,” Tarriela said.
Highlighting the global economic risks, Tarriela emphasized that nearly one-third of international maritime trade passed through the South China Sea—including $6.4 trillion worth of commercial goods in 2024 alone—along with 40 percent of traded petroleum and a third of global liquefied natural gas shipments.
He warned that Beijing is employing a systematic approach to gain control over Scarborough Shoal.
“First, they contest the patrols. Then they regulate the passage. The ‘nature reserve’ and unilateral baselines are the legal groundwork, coercion dressed as conservation,” he said.
“The playbook is proven: seize, normalize, legalize, enforce. It finished the Paracels. It finished the Spratlys. Bajo de Masinloc is in the final stage,” he added.