QUEZON CITY — Super Typhoon Rosal serves as a stern reminder that the Philippines remains vulnerable to destructive cyclones even amid a strong El Niño, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported on Tuesday, October 20.
Speaking at a press conference in Quezon City, PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando cautioned that the prevailing climate phenomenon does not offer immunity against tropical storms.
“Bagamat nakararanas tayo ng malakas na El Niño, mahalagang tandaan natin na hindi tayo ligtas sa banta ng mga tropical cyclone,” Servando said.
Echoing this, PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis noted that historical data demonstrates an increased frequency of typhoons and super typhoons during El Niño episodes, irrespective of their intensity.
“Historically speaking po, mas madami pong typhoon at super typhoon category kapag merong El Niño, whether weak, moderate, strong, o very strong ang El Niño. So nandiyan po yan sa mga datos natin,” Solis said.
Under the agency’s classification framework, a super typhoon represents the most severe category of tropical cyclone, packing maximum sustained winds of at least 185 kilometers per hour.
Solis further explained that October typically sees a higher volume of landfalling and crossing storms during El Niño years, though Rosal has exhibited an atypical tracking pattern by recurving instead.
“Usually po, mas marami pa yung landfalling and crossing na bagyo, typhoon and super typhoon category, kapag may El Niño during the month of October. So it so happens nga po na very unusual din itong track ng bagyo dahil at this time of the year, supposedly landfalling and crossing ang mga bagyo, ngayon may mga recurving pa rin na mga bagyo. Yun din po, isa sa characteristics ng mga bagyo kapag may El Niño, yung preferred tracks niya may possibility na nagbabago,” she added.
As the 18th tropical cyclone to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this year, Super Typhoon Rosal is projected by PAGASA’s forecast track to recurve toward Taiwan, though its outer cloudbands could still impact the country’s northernmost islands, particularly Batanes.