Between nine and 13 tropical cyclones are expected to develop inside or cross into the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the second half of the year, according to the state weather bureau.
During a climate forum, Ana Liza Solis, the Assistant Weather Services Chief of PAGASA’s Climate and Agrometeorology Division, broke down the expected monthly timeline. The country anticipates two to four cyclones in July, another two to four in August, two to three in September, and one to two storms monthly from October through December.
This forecast arrives alongside a developing El Niño pattern in the tropical Pacific, which PAGASA first flagged in an advisory earlier this month, warning it could strengthen and last into next year.
Solis pointed out that historical data links El Niño to more frequent July storms and severe weather conditions as the year closes.
“Historically speaking po kasi, kapag merong El Niño mas marami po tayong bagyo during the month of July. At mas maraming typhoon at super typhoon category during the latter part of the year,” Solis said.
Solis further emphasized that the intensity of these cyclones remains a major concern, regardless of the climate phenomenon’s overall strength.
“Whether weak, moderate, strong, or very strong ang El Niño ay mostly ay typhoon at super typhoon category ang ating posibleng maranasan na strength ng ating mga bagyo. We also need to consider ‘yung possible interaction ng El Niño with this tropical cyclone frequency and ‘yun pong ating mga intertropical convergence zone and low-pressure systems,” she noted.
While El Niño is gaining traction, PAGASA anticipates near-normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the Philippines from July to September, though certain areas in the Visayas and Mindanao might face early dry spells.
“July to September ay possible pa rin po ‘yung generally near to above normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the country except sa ibang parte ng Visayas and Mindanao na mayroon pa rin pong below normal rainfall,” Solis explained.
The more severe, drying impacts of El Niño are expected to grip the country more noticeably toward the end of the winter months.
“Pagdating po ng October, below to near normal rainfall condition over Central Visayas and Mindanao and pagdating po ng November to December, dito na po ‘yung ating mataas na possibility of way below to below normal rainfall condition na likely to experience over most parts of the country. Nandito po ‘yung nakikita nating impact ng El Niño,” Solis said.
The dual threat of powerful typhoons and impending dry spells highlights the urgent need for local communities to step up disaster readiness for the rest of the year.