The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) confirmed in a climate forum on Wednesday that fifteen provinces in Luzon are now officially experiencing drought.
As the country reaches the peak of the warm and dry season, the weather bureau warned that these conditions are likely to persist through the first half of May.
The affected provinces include:
- Cordillera Administrative Region: Abra, Apayao, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, and Mountain Province.
- Ilocos Region: Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan.
- Cagayan Valley: Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, and Quirino.
- Central Luzon: Nueva Ecija and Tarlac.
According to PAGASA, the technical threshold for this classification is significant:
“Drought happens when an area has more than 60% rainfall reduction in three consecutive months.”
National Rainfall Outlook
The drought in the north is part of a broader trend of precipitation decline across the archipelago. Currently, 32 provinces are undergoing a “dry spell”—defined as a “21-60% decrease in rain for three months”—while 23 others are under “dry condition,” which occurs “when below normal rain persist for two months.”
Conversely, ten provinces in Visayas and Mindanao, including Cebu, Bohol, and the Surigao provinces, remain unaffected by the current rainfall reduction.
Record Temperatures and El Niño Alert
The heat is expected to intensify before any relief arrives. In May, maximum temperatures in Northern Luzon are projected to hit 40.8°C, with lowland areas reaching 40.0°C.
Looking ahead, PAGASA has officially issued an El Niño Alert. While the Pacific Ocean is currently neutral, there is an 80% probability of El Niño developing by the June-July-August 2026 season.
“In its early stage, El Niño may enhance the southwest monsoon and bring heavy rains to the western part of the country. Later in the year, it is expected to reduce rainfall and tropical cyclones, which could lead to drier conditions in many areas.”
Current models suggest this El Niño cycle could last through the first quarter of 2027.
Experts warn that if the phenomenon persists into the second quarter of next year, the Philippines may face even more extreme heat and prolonged dry conditions.