Scorching and humid weather will continue to dominate most of the Philippines this week, though the public should brace for sudden, heavy afternoon or evening downpours due to localized thunderstorms, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned on Monday, May 18.
PAGASA weather specialist Aldczar Aurelio stated that the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is currently impacting Southern Mindanao, while the easterlies—warm winds blowing from the Pacific Ocean—are prevailing over the Visayas and the remaining areas of Mindanao.
Concurrently, localized thunderstorms are triggering rain cloud formations across Luzon due to intense daytime heat.
Cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms are expected over the Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Davao Region, and Soccsksargen, where moderate to heavy rainfall may trigger flash floods or landslides.
Aurelio noted that the ITCZ will likely persist in Mindanao until Tuesday, May 19, before shifting away by Wednesday, May 20, making the easterlies the dominant weather system nationwide.
Despite the uptick in isolated rain showers, the state weather bureau emphasized that extreme heat remains the prevailing condition.
“Asahan ang maganda at maaliwalas na panahon sa natitirang bahagi ng bansa pero mataas ang chance na magkaroon ng thunderstorm sa hapon o sa gabi na kung saan nagdadala ito ng biglaang buhos na ulan,” Aurelio said.
(“Expect fair and clear weather in the rest of the country, but there is a high chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening, which bring sudden downpours.”)
Dangerous heat levels continue to bake the archipelago. On Sunday, May 17, heat indices soared to a blistering 45°C in Dagupan City, Pangasinan; Baler, Aurora; Sangley Point, Cavite; and Cuyo, Palawan. Metro Manila logged heat indices between 40°C and 43°C.
For Monday, PAGASA projected the heat index to hit 45°C in San Jose, Occidental Mindoro, as well as Coron and Cuyo in Palawan. Meanwhile, the capital region is expected to hover between 40°C and 42°C.
PAGASA classifies heat indices from 42°C to 51°C under the “danger” threshold, warning that prolonged outdoor exposure significantly increases the risk of heat cramps, exhaustion, and potentially fatal heat stroke.
On a positive note, Aurelio confirmed that no low-pressure areas or tropical cyclones are currently being monitored inside or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.