El Niño conditions across the tropical Pacific Ocean have intensified to a moderate-to-strong level and could peak as a “very strong” climate event before the end of 2026, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
During the agency’s Climate Outlook Forum, weather specialist Joey Figuracion explained that atmospheric and ocean monitoring led state meteorologists to escalate their assessment.
Recent measurements in the key Niño 3.4 monitoring zone showed sea surface temperatures reaching 1.8 degrees Celsius above normal, surpassing the threshold for a strong El Niño event. Forecast models indicate the phenomenon will likely persist into the first half of 2027.
“Our updated ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) Alert and Warning System statement is that moderate-to-strong conditions are ongoing. The El Niño has strengthened from moderate to moderate-to-strong, which is what we are now experiencing in the tropical Pacific,” Figuracion stated during the briefing.
The six-month forecast outlines widespread rainfall deficits across the archipelago. Below-normal precipitation is projected for Northern Luzon in September, spreading across Luzon, the Visayas, and the Caraga region by October.
Rainfall will drop further to below-normal or way-below-normal levels across most of the country in November, though parts of Mindanao may observe near-normal conditions.
While December could bring a temporary surge of above-normal rain to Luzon and Western Visayas, dry conditions are projected to return nationwide in January and February 2027. Surface air temperatures are also expected to remain slightly warmer than average throughout the outlook period.
Despite the dry spells, PAGASA expects five to eight tropical cyclones to enter or develop within the Philippine Area of Responsibility between September 2026 and February 2027.
The bureau estimates two to three storms in September, one or two monthly from October through December, up to one in January, and a reduced likelihood in February.
Figuracion noted that storms entering during the late-year “ber” months carry an increased probability of landfall before cyclone activity tapers off early next year.