Philippine regions currently enduring heavy southwest monsoon (habagat) downpours could see precipitation levels drop sharply over the coming months as an ongoing El Niño episode gains strength.
During a public briefing on Tuesday, September 8, Ana Liza Solis, chief of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, warned that the current climate phenomenon could reach critical levels prior to the end of the year.
“Sa ngayon po ay ongoing po iyong moderate to strong El Niño at posible po itong maging very strong El Niño before end ng 2026,” Solis stated.
According to Solis, the shift toward extended dry spells will become more pronounced as the monsoonal pattern wanes and changing wind systems move atmospheric moisture away from the archipelago.
“Iyong paghina po ng hanging easterlies, so nagiging westerlies po siya kaya medyo after po ng habagat, maaaring magiging papalayo na po iyong mga moisture na magiging available dito sa ating bansa,” she explained.
PAGASA projects that water rainfall across multiple regions could fall steeply starting late November.
“After po nitong habagat, unti-unti na pong magkakaroon ng mga significant reduction sa tubig-ulan. Puwedeng mag-start from 40 percent up to more than 80 percent na reduction sa susunod na mga buwan, actually by end of November,” Solis noted.
Provinces at Risk
By the end of November, PAGASA forecasts that 44 provinces and key areas will experience dry conditions, while 17 provinces face dry spells. Camarines Sur stands as the sole province projected to enter a full-scale drought.
The 44 areas projected to experience dry conditions span across the three major island groups:
- Luzon (22 areas): Albay, Aurora, Batangas, Bulacan, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Laguna, Marinduque, Masbate, Metro Manila, Nueva Ecija, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, Kalayaan, Pampanga, Quezon, Quirino, Rizal, Romblon, Sorsogon, and Tarlac.
- Visayas (15 areas): Aklan, Antique, Biliran, Bohol, Cebu, Eastern Samar, Guimaras, Iloilo, Leyte, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Northern Samar, Samar, Siquijor, and Southern Leyte.
- Mindanao (7 areas): Basilan, Camiguin, Davao Oriental, Dinagat Islands, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, and Zamboanga del Norte.
Meanwhile, all 17 provinces forecasted to face dry spell conditions are located in Luzon: Abra, Apayao, Bataan, Batanes, Benguet, Cagayan, Cavite, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Kalinga, La Union, Mountain Province, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, and Zambales.
Definitions and Scope
PAGASA classifies a dry condition as two consecutive months of rainfall falling 21% to 60% below normal levels. A dry spell involves three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, or two consecutive months where precipitation plunges by over 60%. A drought is declared when rainfall drops by over 60% for three consecutive months or remains 21% to 60% below normal for five straight months.
Solis cautioned that many localities currently suffering from extreme monsoon rainfalls are ironically among those facing the highest risk of severe meteorological drought later on.
“Iyong mga areas po na naapektuhan ng matinding habagat sa Luzon, sila din po iyong mga potential para maapektuhan din po noong meteorological drought condition at kasama na po iyong mga areas diyan sa may Visayas as well as Mindanao,” Solis emphasized.
“Malaking bahagi po ng ating bansa ay posible sa significant reduction ng ating tubig-ulan until next year,” she added.