The weather disturbance locally named Tropical Depression Josie (international name: Haishen) has officially fallen apart.
On Tuesday afternoon, July 14, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported that the system had downgraded into a low-pressure area (LPA) and is expected to completely dissolve within 24 hours.
Strong vertical wind shear was credited for rapidly dismantling the cyclone’s structure, according to PAGASA weather specialist Benison Estareja. As of 3 p.m. on Tuesday, the system’s remnants were located 1,095 kilometers east of Southeastern Luzon, continuing its trajectory away from the country.
Although the LPA no longer presents a direct hazard, Estareja mentioned that its outer bands could still bring light rain to Dinagat Islands and Samar.
Meanwhile, meteorologists are also monitoring a different cyclone located near Guangdong, China. Situated 940 kilometers northwest of Extreme Northern Luzon, that system is anticipated to fade away as it progresses further inland over mainland China.
As Josie dissipates, the southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat, is also weakening. Estareja stated that this development will bring drier weather to the western parts of Luzon over the next 48 hours. Furthermore, PAGASA indicated that no new tropical cyclones are projected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) through the weekend, though another system might develop or approach the region before July ends.
For Wednesday, July 15, fair and sunny weather is anticipated across the majority of Luzon, including Metro Manila, with chances of isolated thunderstorms later in the day. The Visayas, Mindanao, and Palawan can expect similar conditions, punctuated only by localized rain showers.
A slight uptick in monsoon activity is expected later in the week.
“The habagat may gradually strengthen from Thursday to Saturday, July 16 to 18,” Estareja said.
While this shift will likely bring cloudier skies and more frequent rain to Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, and potentially Metro Manila by the weekend, the state weather bureau assured residents that severe or widespread monsoon flooding is not expected.