A recent Pulse Asia survey suggests that Vice President Sara Duterte would maintain a significant lead in a hypothetical one-on-one presidential race against Senator Bam Aquino.
The commissioned survey, requested by the office of Senate Majority Leader Juan Miguel “Migz” Zubiri between February 27 and March 2, shows Duterte securing a 55% voter preference, while Aquino follows with 32%.
The regional breakdown highlights a dominant performance for the Vice President, particularly in Mindanao, where she garnered a landslide 97% support compared to Aquino’s 2%. Duterte also led in the National Capital Region with 46% over Aquino’s 27%, and in the Visayas with a 69% to 28% margin.
However, the data reveals a vulnerability for Duterte in “Balance Luzon.” In that region, Aquino took the lead with 51% against Duterte’s 30%.
Notably, Balance Luzon is the same territory where Aquino topped the 2025 midterm senatorial elections and where other potential contenders, such as Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo, have previously outpaced the Vice President in similar head-to-head polls.
This study marks the third one-on-one simulation conducted by the research firm. Previous iterations showed a much tighter race, with Tulfo and Duterte locked in a 46% tie, and Robredo narrowing Duterte’s lead to just eight percentage points.