Japan will need to replace between two and five aging nuclear reactors by the 2040s, and up to 14 by the 2050s, to guarantee a stable supply of electricity, according to a new policy draft from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI).
Presented during a nuclear energy policy meeting on Friday, the proposal underscores the nation’s accelerating pivot back to atomic energy. The shift aims to accommodate skyrocketing electricity demand while curbing the country’s heavy reliance on foreign fuel imports.
According to METI, the 14 proposed replacement reactors would yield a collective capacity of approximately 16 gigawatts (GW).
In the wake of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi disaster, Japan deactivated its entire fleet of 54 commercial reactors due to severe public safety anxieties. Currently, 33 of those units are deemed technically operational, with 15 having successfully resumed operations after fulfilling stringent, updated safety regulations.
Although the government overhauled its energy strategy last year to bolster the role of nuclear power, a significant number of existing reactors are approaching or have already surpassed their 60-year operational limits. This lifespan issue threatens a sharp drop in future nuclear capacity, even if more idle plants are successfully restarted.
By establishing concrete baseline targets for reactor replacement, officials intend to offer a stable framework for utility companies navigating long-term capital investments, the draft indicated.
The policy pivot aligns with projections of an imminent surge in power consumption, fueled significantly by the rapid growth of data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Under the current national energy roadmap, the government targets nuclear power to fulfill about 20% of Japan’s total electricity matrix by fiscal 2040.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has aggressively championed the expansion of the nuclear sector, pointing to the urgent necessity of cutting back on imported coal, oil, and natural gas, which currently generate 60% to 70% of the nation’s electricity.
Nevertheless, restoring public trust remains a steep hurdle following the Fukushima catastrophe and lingering safety scandals, such as Chubu Electric’s recent falsification of seismic risk data regarding its Hamaoka facility.