The United Nations warned on Thursday that global temperatures are expected to remain at or near historic highs over the next several years, with another record-breaking year likely before the end of the decade.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the planet’s warming trend is projected to continue following a decade marked by unprecedented heat, with all 11 of the hottest years on record occurring since 2015.
The agency said there is a 75 percent probability that the average global temperature from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels measured between 1850 and 1900.
“Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years,” the WMO said in its latest climate outlook.
“It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record,” it added.
The report was released as parts of western Europe experienced extreme heat conditions caused by a “heat dome,” with Britain and France recording unusually high temperatures for the month of May.
Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s Global Annual-to-Decadal Update, said the expected return of the El Niño weather pattern could further raise global temperatures in the coming years.
“There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” Hermanson said.
The previous El Niño event contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year ever recorded, while 2024 became the hottest year on record at approximately 1.55 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The event can influence global weather systems, affecting rainfall, wind patterns, and temperatures worldwide.
The phenomenon typically develops every two to seven years and can last from nine to 12 months.