The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a warning on Tuesday, stating there is an 80% chance that the El Niño climate pattern will emerge between June and August. This development greatly increases the potential for severe weather events across the globe.
According to the United Nations climate agency, above-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are already signaling a transition toward El Niño.
This shift is anticipated to have a major impact on global rainfall and temperature trends.
“Fuelled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Nino conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns,” the WMO said.
As a natural climate cycle, El Niño is characterized by the warming of surface waters in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. This disruption alters global wind, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation systems, frequently triggering harsh weather conditions in various parts of the world.
The cycle generally recurs every two to seven years, persisting for about nine to twelve months. It rotates with La Niña, its cooler counterpart, interspersed with periods of neutral conditions.
The WMO’s newest quarterly report highlights a definitive trend toward El Niño, with the probability of its onset hitting 80% by August and climbing to “near or above 90%” by November. Forecast models indicate that the upcoming event will likely reach at least moderate intensity, with a strong possibility of becoming severe.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo urged global communities to brace for the fallout, which could include worsening droughts, torrential rains, and heightened risks of marine and terrestrial heatwaves.
“[It] could exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” Saulo said.
The organization further emphasized that even an El Niño of moderate strength can drastically heighten the frequency of extreme weather anomalies.
The previous El Niño cycle played a major role in driving global temperatures to unprecedented levels.
It contributed to making 2023 the second-warmest year ever recorded and propelled 2024 to a historic peak, averaging roughly 1.55°C above pre-industrial baselines.