The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has officially announced the start of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, warning of upcoming weather shifts that could impact the country.
According to a climate advisory issued on June 9, the sea surface temperature anomaly hit the critical threshold of +0.5°C in May 2026, officially satisfying the criteria for El Niño.
Climate models predict an 80 percent probability that the phenomenon will intensify into a full-blown event and persist until the first quarter of 2027.
As the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, El Niño triggers unusual warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. In the Philippines, this typically translates to reduced rainfall and significantly drier weather.
The state weather bureau warned that the developing climate pattern raises the risk of below-average rainfall across various regions, which could trigger dry spells and severe droughts in vulnerable areas.
However, PAGASA clarified that the dry spell will not be uniform. Western regions of the country might still see above-normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon, or Habagat, especially if tropical cyclones pull in and intensify monsoon activity.
In light of these projections, authorities have urged local government units, sectors, and communities to ramp up their disaster preparedness. Regions prone to water scarcity are advised to conserve resources, while low-lying, flood-prone communities must stay alert for sudden bouts of heavy torrential rain.
PAGASA assured the public that it will closely track the evolving climate situation and cooperate with relevant state agencies to mitigate risks to agriculture, water security, and national disaster management.