The state weather bureau PAGASA announced on Friday that one or two tropical cyclones are projected to enter or develop within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this May.
These potential storms, which will be named “Caloy” and “Domeng,” are expected to follow specific climatological patterns typical for the month.
PAGASA forecaster Leanne Loreto explained during a morning broadcast that May cyclones often change course before impacting the mainland.
“Base sa ating climatological tropical cyclone tracks, yung mga bagyo sa Mayo ay usually nagre-recurve o hindi tumatama sa ating kapuluan. Meron din naming mga bagyo na dumadaan dito sa may central Philippines at nagre-recurve at e-exit na,” Loreto noted.
Extreme Heat and Developing Drought
Despite the potential for storms, the warm and dry season is expected to dominate the first half of the month. Forecasts indicate that temperatures could soar to 40.8°C in Northern Luzon, 40.0°C in Central Luzon, and 38.1°C in Metro Manila. This follows a seasonal peak of 39.3°C recently recorded in Camiling, Tarlac.
The intense heat coincides with worsening water scarcity. As of mid-April, 15 provinces in Northern and Central Luzon have been classified under drought conditions, having seen a rainfall deficit of more than 60% over the last quarter.
The El Niño Threat
PAGASA has officially issued an alert for El Niño, with an 80% probability of development between June and August, though an earlier onset this May remains possible. Experts warn that while El Niño might initially trigger heavy monsoon rains in the west, it will likely lead to severe dry spells starting in September.
Key projections for the phenomenon include:
- Intensity: A 25% chance of becoming “very strong,” with Pacific sea surface temperatures potentially rising 2°C above normal by year-end.
- Cyclone Behavior: Fewer storms may enter the PAR, but those that do could be significantly more intense.
- Duration: The effects are expected to linger through the first quarter of 2027.
While the Visayas and Mindanao may see near to above-normal rainfall this month, Metro Manila and Luzon face a continued reduction in precipitation, further straining agricultural and water resources.