The state weather bureau has officially escalated its El Niño status from “watch” to “alert,” warning that the climate phenomenon is now significantly more likely to emerge within the next few months.
On Wednesday, April 22, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced that the probability of El Niño developing during the June–August season has jumped to approximately 79%. This follows a previous “watch” issued in late March when the likelihood sat at 55%.
PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando emphasized that the upgrade is a signal for the nation to shift into a higher state of readiness.
“It is important to clarify that the alert means that the possibility of the formation of an El Niño is higher. This means that conditions are already favorable and there is a strong likelihood that it will develop in the next two to three months,” Servando said.
The transition to El Niño typically triggers a shift in weather patterns, characterized by reduced rainfall and higher temperatures.
Servando warned that these conditions could pose serious risks to agriculture, energy production, water management, and general public health.
“In light of these projections, the DOST-PAGASA is taking proactive steps to closely monitor evolving conditions and to provide timely and accurate advisories to guide national and local preparedness efforts. This is a critical stage where preparedness actions should already be intensified,” he added.
While the phenomenon is synonymous with dry spells and potential drought, the weather bureau noted a complex interaction with local seasonal winds.
Despite the overall drying trend, parts of the country may still encounter heavy rainfall due to the southwest monsoon, or habagat.
“We know that if there is an El Niño, there is a high possibility of having drier than normal conditions that will have a negative effect such as droughts or dry spells in some parts of the country. However, we will experience strong rains in the lower parts of the country during the southwest monsoon or habagat season. PAGASA will continue to monitor the development of the El Niño phenomenon and will coordinate closely with all government agencies,” Servando concluded.